Census Boost to GOP is Thanks to Midterm Results


An awful lot of the commentary I’m hearing on why the reaportionment of congressional seats in the wake of the census will help the GOP strikes me as confused. A lot of the commentary is based on a simple “ecological fallacy” that reasons Texas is a Republican state, Texas is gaining seats, ergo Republicans are gaining seats. The world doesn’t work like that. But the problems with this naive analysis are being papered over by the fact that the conclusion is right. Redistricting will in fact help House Republicans. But that’s simply because the 2010 election means Republicans control most state legislatures and governor’s mansions.

Reaportionment helps whichever party controls the process. In most states, that means Republicans. But that’s the issue here, not the demographic shift toward the sunbelt.