Steve Benen thinks that maybe it makes sense for Jeb Bush to wait and try to run in 2016 rather than 2012. My advice to Jeb is the same as my advice to John Thune—unless the issue is that you don’t want to be president, there’s no time to run quite like the present. It’s true that a “Bush fatigue” issue will be a possible problem in 2012, but it’s not really a problem that will go away in 2016. What’s more, something I should have said explicitly in the Thune post is that obviously Barack Obama might lose in 2012, in which case there is no 2016 GOP nomination to run for.
Something everyone should consider, more broadly, is that the 2010 midterms brought a bumper crop of Republican governors into office. Right now the field of prominent statewide GOP officeholders looks pretty thin, so your former Massachusetts governors and undistinguished South Dakota Senators look like okay candidates. But unless 2014 is a banner year for Democrats, the likelihood is that by 2016 there will be a lot of experienced Republican governors, one or two of whom might make formidable contenders.
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