Regime Change Fever Reaches Canada

The three opposition parties that together have a majority in Canada’s parliament have finally teamed up to topple Stephen Harper’s conservative minority government. Harper’s always been in a precarious position because all three of the opposition parties are generally to the left of Harper’s Conservatives. In other words, the median MP has usually been a Liberal even though the Conservatives had the largest delegation. All that said, the early polling looks favorable for Harper:

But Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff should pause before celebrating. Most polls continue to show the Conservatives well ahead of the Liberals. An Ipsos-Reid poll released on Thursday has the Conservatives at 43-per-cent support, in majority-government territory, with the Liberals far behind at 24 per cent. The NDP enjoyed 16 per cent support, while the Bloc Québécois has 41 per cent of the vote in Quebec.

Since Canada has first past the post voting, the geographical distribution of support winds up mattering a great deal.