Paul Ryan’s Budget Proposal Would Increase Public Debt Relative To Extending Current Law


Given that the bulk of Paul Ryan’s spending reductions over the long term come from promising to eliminate Medicare ten years in the future, I was wondering how he achieved any meaningful debt reduction within the normal ten-year baseline. The answer, according to the initial CBO analysis (PDF) is that he doesn’t:

All the various cuts that take place before the Great Medicare Phaseout don’t compensate for the tax cuts that Ryan proposes, so relative to current law debt goes up. Then further out in the future if we implement the Medicare elimination plan, debt starts to decline.