Nate Silver rolls out some regression smoothing:
Two main points here. One is that it may be time for Barack Obama to consider a flip-flop on this subject. In changing its legal theory on the Defense of Marriage Act the administration decided that classification by sexual orientation requires “heightened scrutiny” under the 14th Amendment and that DOMA doesn’t pass the test. To my eye, that implies that all marriage discrimination legislation requires heightened scrutiny and makes it hard for me to see how any form of discrimination can pass the test. But I don’t think this issue has been faced squarely by the administration yet.
The other is that if Justice Kennedy and the four other liberals and moderates favor marriage equality on the merits, they can now rest assured that a pro-equality ruling would be politically sustainable.