Here’s a chart from the St Louis Fed:
This kind of thing makes me wonder how much of a difference could be made by pure information. How many 14 and 15 year-olds are aware of this correlation? How might their behavior—and that of their parents—change if they were better informed? My dad dropped out of high school and he’s turned out fine, but I think that still wasn’t a decision with a positive expected value. People suffer from optimism bias that can be further exacerbated by bad information. After all, it’s not totally obvious what job-relevant skills one learns in 12th grade.