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Fun With Forecasts

By Matthew Yglesias on May 7, 2011 at 8:30 am

"Fun With Forecasts"

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Do we really think this Nigeria forecast is going to happen?

I mean I guess it might. And there is a fair amount of momentum built into demographic trends. But this seems an awful lot like an unwarranted straight line projection.

Update

For perspective, if Nigeria were to have 725 million people as per this prediction that would give it a population density that’s still quite a bit lower than contemporary Bangladesh so it’s not inconceivable that this will happen. And though Bangladesh is very poor, there’s no necessary link between high population density and poverty. In 2011, the Netherlands is more than twice as dense as Nigeria.

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