Empirical evidence that the debates are hurting Rick Perry:
This is a problem with a lot of armchair analysis from pundits. Mitt Romney has serious liabilities in a GOP primary on paper that Tim Pawlenty and Rick Perry didn’t have. But in primary elections, gaffes and poor debate performances matter a lot. There are many more “swing voters” in a primary since the candidates are ideologically similar and voters/donors/etc. don’t have tribal allegiances that create high floors for the candidates. The vast majority of Americans are either committed Democrats or committed Republicans who will vote the exact same way in 2012 as they did in 2008. Primaries aren’t like that, so looking unsteady matters a lot.
I still think Romney needs to try to challenge Perry to a one-on-one debate, and either kick his butt or else mock him for being a coward. The multi-candidate format tends to distract attention from exactly how frequently Perry is looking bad out there.
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