To my way of thinking, the recent surge of commentary suggesting that Hillary Clinton now has an unbreakable lock on the Democratic nomination strongly suggests that she’s not as well-positioned as I’d thought. After all, isn’t this the sort of thing everyone’s always wrong about? And isn’t three months actually 3 million years in news-cycle terms. Then I see Marc report that “political prognosticators and many Iowa Democrats are buzzing about a coming Biden surge.”
Now, there are only two possible explanations for that. One is that political prognosticators are totally crazy and ignorant, in which case we should discount growing prognostication of a Clinton win, or else the prognosticators are correct, and totally crazy and ridiculous things are likely to happen, in which case Clinton’s apparently solid grip on the nomination as of today is probably worthless.