Here’s an important point from Calculated Risk who’s comparing the “more adverse” scenario in the administration’s “stress tests” to OECD projections for the American economy. Here the GDP comparison:
And here’s unemployment:
Basically, the OECD sees it as more likely than not that the economic situation will be worse than the situation assumed under the administration’s most pessimistic projection. Which means that banks could pass the “stress test” but still wind up failing.