With yesterday’s bombing of one of Shiite Islam’s holiest shrines in Iraq, the common consensus appears to be that Iraq is now on the verge of a full-blown civil war. Such an outcome has been predicted for years, and the Bush administration has done little to shift its strategy to address the persisting threat.
In September 2004, intelligence officials at the CIA warned that Iraq could dissolve into civil war over the next 18 months (18 months have now elapsed since the report was revealed). “White House spokesman Scott McClellan, and other White House spokesmen, called the intelligence assessment the work of ‘pessimists and naysayers’ after its outlines were disclosed by the New York Times. President Bush called the assessment a guess, which drew the consternation of many intelligence officials.”
The CIA wasn’t the only one warning the administration of a possible civil war. In fact, lawmakers and experts from across the spectrum have repeatedly tried to call the administration’s attention to the issue.
October 2002
Sen. Joseph Biden (D-DE): I have not been very enamored with the way half this administration has gone about this effort without thoroughly going into what happens the day after Saddam is down. “¦ The president said that, “What could be worse than Saddam?” Well, what could be worse than Saddam would be a major civil war in the region. [CNN Larry King Live, 10/9/02]
Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV): What plans do we have to prevent Iraq from breaking up and descending into civil war? [Congressional Record, S10006–10007, 10/7/02]
Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD): The end of Saddam Hussein could mean the start of a civil war. [Congressional Record, S10078, 10/8/02]
January 2004
CIA officers in Iraq are warning that the country may be on a path to civil war, current and former U.S. officials said Wednesday. [Knight-Ridder, 1/22/04]
February 2004
[Rep. Ike] Skelton also expressed concern about the Bush administration’s plans to turn “sovereignty” of Iraq over to interim Iraqi authorities July 1. He warned of the possibility of Iraq falling into civil war if U.S. troops create a vacuum by scaling back too swiftly. [Marine Corps Times, 2/16/04]
April 2004
Joseph Biden, an influential senator on US foreign policy, warned Sunday that Iraq could fall into civil war after the United States hands over power to Iraqis on June 30. “¦ “We’re going to end up with worst of all worlds,” he said. “We’re going to end up with a civil war in Iraq if in fact we decide we can turn this over, including the bulk of the security, to the Iraqis between now and then.” [AFP, 4/5/04]
Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI): If we restore sovereignty to an entity created by the United States that doesn’t have the support of the Iraqi people and the international community then there could be even greater violence against our forces, including the possibility of civil war. [CNN, 4/10/04]
September 2004
A classified National Intelligence Estimate prepared for President Bush in late July spells out a dark assessment of prospects for Iraq”¦ The estimate outlines three possibilities for Iraq through the end of 2005, with the worst case being developments that could lead to civil war, the officials said. [New York Times, 9/16/04]
December 2004
A classified cable sent by the Central Intelligence Agency’s station chief in Baghdad has warned that the situation in Iraq is deteriorating and may not rebound any time soon, according to government officials. [NYT, 12/7/04]
Prime Minister Ayad Allawi warned of the growing danger of sectarian civil war in the wake of Sunni insurgent attacks in Shiite holy cities on Sunday. [Lincoln Journal Star, 12/21/04]
Civil war and the possible establishment of a post-Saddam Iranian-style theocracy are among the future consequences that may be faced, [Sen. Chuck] Hagel said. [Lincoln Journal Star, 12/21/04]
May 2005
“It’s just political rhetoric to say we are not in a civil war. We’ve been in a civil war for a long time,” said Pat Lang, the former top Middle East intelligence official at the Pentagon. [Newsday, 5/12/05]
“I think we are really on the edge” of all-out civil war, said Noah Feldman, a New York University law professor who worked for the U.S. coalition in Iraq. [Newsday, 5/12/05]
July 2005
Iraq is slipping into all-out civil war, a Shia leader declared yesterday, as a devastating onslaught of suicide bombers slaughtered more than 150 people, most of them Shias, around the capital at the weekend. [London Times, 7/18/05]