CAP’s Andrew Light predicts interim political deal will be signed at Copenhagen

Optimism breaks out at COP-15 following Clinton’s arrival and tough negotiations, but confusion reigns about impact of a potential deal on ultimate planetary warming

Here is CAP Senior Fellow explaining what he expects over the next 24 to 36 hours (video here, in case embed code acts up):

http://video.cleanskies.com/FD_00009372.mp4

I found similar optimism in my evening conversations with Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA) and many senior environmental leaders. More on that tomorrow.

The BBC report tonight was similarly optimistic:

A deal at the UN climate summit looks more likely following a frantic day of behind the scenes diplomacy.

China signalled concessions on monitoring of emission curbs, and the US said it would commit money for developing countries.

Leaders are likely to have big choices to make when they meet on Friday.

There is some confusion on the likely outcome:

However, a leaked document from the UN climate convention indicates the best deal likely here will not keep the temperature rise below 2C (3.6F).

Even if countries implement their biggest pledges, a rise of 3C (5.4F) is indicated, it concluded.

First off, Light made clear to me in a late-night conversation that the leaked document didn’t analyze the treaty. Second as I explained at length here — Is it just too damn late? Part 1, the Science — the major developing countries, including China or India, haven’t yet agreed to cap their emissions, let alone to ultimately reduce them. Until that happens, no model of global commitments is going to keep us anywhere near 2°C (3.6F). But that doesn’t mean they won’t agree to a treaty that sets the 2°C target. As modeler Andrew Jones said of a similarly misleading story, the headline could read:

“New Analysis Shows Growing Commitment to a Global Deal Will Help Stabilize Climate.”