The math in the Senate is not complicated. The Republicans have 52 senators, which means they can only have two defections and still pass the bill. (All Senate Democrats oppose Trumpcare.)
Senate Republicans unveiled their latest version of Trumpcare today. Shortly thereafter, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released a report finding it would leave an additional 22 million people uninsured by 2026, with 15 million losing coverage in 2018 alone. Low-income Americans would be hit especially hard as Medicaid would be severely cut and premium subsidies slashed.
There are now three Republicans who have publicly stated that will not only oppose the bill but will vote against a “motion to proceed,” which means the bill would not even get an up-or-down vote.
Senator Susan Collins (R-ME)
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)
Senator Dean Heller (R-NV)
Heller made his comments three days ago, but none of the changes made since then have addressed his concerns about Medicaid cuts.
Unless one of these three Senators change their mind, the Senate bill is already dead. Majority Leader McConnell will be looking to make changes to flip votes, but the path forward is treacherous.
Conservatives like Paul oppose the bill because it doesn’t go far enough to repeal Obamacare. Moderates like Collins and Heller oppose the bill because it goes too far in cutting Medicaid.
McConnell’s problems likely extend far beyond these three Senators: Only 17 Republican senators have made statements firmly supporting the bill. Five other Republicans have publicly expressed serious concerns.