Overhauling the tax code before Christmas would be a difficult task under “normal” conditions, yet Republicans in Congress are pledging to do just that with their tax bill.
A University of Chicago survey released Tuesday polled 42 of the nation’s leading economists about the Republican tax plan — and all but one said they do not agree with claims that the plan will grow the economy.
This survey is yet another piece of analysis that eviscerates a popular White House talking point that by cutting taxes for corporations, the GOP tax plan would create so much economic growth that the average American family would get a raise of about $4,000 dollars.
Earlier this week, analysis from the non-partisan Tax Policy Center found that, despite claims from White House officials like chief economic adviser Gary Cohn, the tax cuts will not pay for themselves through growth. In total, the House bill would yield around $169 billion in additional tax revenue, nowhere near enough to cover the roughly $1.5 trillion in revenue loss from a corporate tax cut.
This University of Chicago survey echoes another survey conducted by the institution in May. Back then, 35 out of 37 economists believed the Trump tax cuts wouldn’t pay for themselves; the other two didn’t understand the question.
Not only is the GOP tax plan unpopular among prominent economists, but the American public is also beginning to catch on. An ABC News-Washington poll from earlier in the month found that Americans oppose the tax plan by a 17 point margin, believing it only benefits the wealthy. This polling was conducted before the Senate Finance Committee announced it would include a repeal of the individual mandate — a provision of the Affordable Care Act that requires individuals be insured — to help pay for a corporate tax cut.
In addition to leaving 13 million Americans uninsured, repealing the individual mandate might also cost Republicans a few key votes in the Senate. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) was instrumental in ultimately voting against the multiple Republican efforts to repeal and replace Obamacare and has stated the plan would harm middle class families.
“I have data that demonstrates for certain middle-income individuals and couples, who do not qualify for subsidies under the ACA… that the premium increase will outweigh the tax cut that they get,” Collins told reporters. “I suspected this, based on what I know about insurance markets, but now I have the actual data.”
Senate Republicans can only afford to lose two votes.