Former Cheney adviser: The odds of Israel attacking Iran are ‘slightly, slightly above 50–50.’

In an article for Mother Jones, Laura Rozen reports that there are “significant factors weighing against prospective Israeli military action on Iran before the Bush term ends.” “My sense is the Pentagon would be worried or opposed to an Israeli attack,” says David Wurmser, former Middle East adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney. But, according to Wurmser, an Israeli attack against Iran is still more likely than not:

“Even beyond the question of whether McCain or Obama wins, the Israelis are afraid that no new administration is really going to be able to get its act together quickly to be able to mobilize a plan and do something,” Wurmser said.


Wurmser put the odds of Israel striking Iran before Bush leaves office at “slightly, slightly above 50–50.”