At first glance, what’s unfolding in California might not make much sense. Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom really seems to want to take his fellow Democrats down a peg. And he’s happy to boost a Republican rival in the process. It seems an odd way for one of California’s best known Democrats to behave.
Yet Newsom, who is currently the frontrunner to be California’s next governor, is simply reacting to the perverse incentives created by his state’s ridiculous method of electing officials. It’s a system that could potentially lock Democrats out of power in the U.S. House of Representatives — an outcome that Newsom might seal with the unusual tactics he’s chosen to deploy.
To explain, California uses a “jungle primary” system in its elections. Rather than holding partisan primaries, and then allowing the winners of these primaries to square off against each other in the general election, all of California candidates compete in one grand primary regardless of their partisan affiliation. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this first round then compete in a runoff to determine the ultimate winner.
Among other things, this unusual system of electing leaders creates a risk that two Republicans may advance to the general election in a handful of U.S. House races, where Democrats could split their vote among too many candidates, even if a majority of primary voters prefer a Democrat to a Republican.
In the gubernatorial race, polls show Newsom leading a bipartisan field of six gubernatorial candidates — although most polls show him taking less than a quarter of the overall vote. Republican John Cox and Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa are in a tight race for second place — and the opportunity to enter the run-off round of the jungle primary.
That creates an odd situation for Newsom. If Villaraigosa — or some other Democrat — advances to the run-off, then Newsom could face a tough fight for the big prize. However, if a Republican candidate manages to advance, then Newsom is overwhelmingly likely to prevail in November. California is, after all, a solid blue state.
So Newsom appears to be trying to cut down his fellow Democrats while simultaneously boosting turnout for Cox. Earlier this month, Newsom launched an ad that, while ostensibly an attack on Cox, touts Cox’s conservative record on guns and accuses him of standing “with Donald Trump and the NRA.” As the Mercury News’ Casey Tolan notes, it’s the sort of ad that’s “likely to enhance Cox’s appeal among conservative, pro-gun voters as he tries to consolidate the Republican support he needs to get into the top two.”
Then, Newsom launched a pair of ads attacking Villaraigosa and another Democrat, state Treasurer John Chiang. According to the San Francisco Chronicle’s Phillip Matier and Andrew Ross, both ads were created “with the goal of helping Republican John Cox win the No. 2 slot in the upcoming primary.”
If these tactics do succeed in boosting Cox, it would likely be a huge boon to Newsom’s political career. But Newsom’s success could come at the expense of Democrats nationwide, potentially shutting down the party’s hopes of building a firewall against President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C.
Consider, for example, the race to replace retiring Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA). Though polls show that a majority of the district’s voters prefer a Democrat to a Republican, there is a very real risk that Democratic voters will divide their ballots among so many different candidates that two Republicans will emerge as the top-two vote-getters. That risk increases if Newsom’s ads drive up turnout for Republicans.
It’s tough to blame Newsom for this situation. Candidates, after all, compete to win. And its not like Newsom personally installed the jungle primary system that creates such weird incentives, he’s just operating logically within its confines.
But the entire situation is bonkers. Democrats in Issa’s district and in a few others don’t know who they should vote for in order to ensure that a Democrat advances to the general elections. Candidates like Newsom have to choose between maximizing their own chance of victory or serving the greater interests of their party. And Republicans may ultimately retain control of the House, even if voters prefer a Democratic legislature by wide margins, due to this odd, anti-democratic way a few House races in California will be decided.