Giuliani’s Odds

I’m not sure if it’s possible to sell short on Intrade, but if it is I think you’d have to consider Rudy Giuliani pretty seriously overvalued at these prices. He never seemed like a likely nominee to me for the obvious reasons, and his strategy of skipping all the early primary states was clearly a mistake. I suppose you could see Giuliani winning if Huckabee, McCain, and Romney all manage to stay in the field for a while, each drawing substantial support and letting Giuliani eke out a series of plurality wins but that sounds far-fetched to me.