The Census Bureau has just released new population projections based on alternative scenarios for immigration — high, low and constant. The Bureau released their main projection, based on a medium immigration scenario, last fall, which showed the US becoming majority-minority in 2043. The new projections take that conclusion even further.
Under all scenarios in the new projections, the US will become majority-minority no later than 2046. In other words, even if immigration is low or constant, the date we become majority-minority only moves back a few years. And if the high immigration scenario occurs, we will become majority-minority earlier, in 2041.
The Census release also notes that the population under 18 years is projected to become majority-minority in either 2018 or 2019 in all four series. That’s only 6–7 years away. And the working-age population (18–64) is projected to become majority-minority between 2036 (high series) and 2042 (constant series).
These data show that the race-ethnic transformation of the United States is inevitable. We are hurtling toward a new world that no one can stop and to which everyone will have to adapt. And that very definitely includes conservatives who think that by opposing immigration reform they can somehow stop this transformation. The new data from the Census suggest just how futile this quest will ultimately be.