But one has to assume Fidel Castro doesn’t have much longer at this point. The prospect of Castro’s death is always covered with the sort of baited breath that suggests people are anticipating some kind of dramatic change to follow from it. That could happen, of course, but it seems equally likely — indeed, somewhat more likely — to me that nothing in particular will happen. Cuba could just plug along, dictatorial, sanctioned, poor for a good long time just as the death of the DPRK’s founder didn’t fundamentally alter anything.
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