Official Election Predictions Post

When all the votes are counted, I think there’ll be 232 House Republicans. They’ll be joined by 49 Senate Republicans, which is going to set off an interesting frenzy of efforts to entice Senators Nelson, Lieberman, Landrieu, and Pryor to switch parties but I forecast that coordination problems — only works if two jump — will frustrate Republicans. Meanwhile, egomaniacal senate moderates will be frustrated to discover that the legislative process now consists primarily of negotiations between Barack Obama and the House GOP.

This reversion to a balance of political power that leaves Democrats in a stronger position than they were as recently as the 2005–2008 period will be treated by the press as a world-historical shift in favor of the right. Most press figures will probably explicitly note that election results are invariably over-interpreted and then proceed to over-interpret again, arguing that this time it’s different.

Interestingly, changes in state legislature turn out to be highly correlated with House outcomes so the GOP will get a big upper hand in the redistricting process.