Pollster.com calls it for Obama: 311–227

One of the two best polling analysis websites called the election for Obama at 5:09 pm Monday:

Tomorrow, Barack Obama will become the first Democratic Presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win an outright majority of the votes cast on Election Day — and with it a sizeable majority of electoral votes — making him the next President of the United States.

Actually, the other terrific polling analysis website seems to have called it for Obama at 4:47 (see here). But only Pollster.com offers a detailed rationale in their post for a 6% Obama win, one piece of which is:

In an ironic twist, it was Obama who defined McCain in a negative light rather than the other way around. They started by claiming that he was “confused” four months ago and then painting him as “erratic” in the last 60 days. Of course, team McCain and the candidate himself contributed to this. It will be interesting to count the gross rating points that went behind contrast ads on both sides. My guess is that the Obama campaign might win that count as well.

I proposed “erratic” back in September, for what it’s worth. You can thank me Tuesday night.

Pollster.com has Congressional predictions too:

Democrats will increase their majority status in the Senate by 8 seats to 59. We are projecting that incumbent GOP incumbent senators Smith, Stevens, Coleman, Dole and Sununu will all lose. In the House we project a 31 seat gain for Democrats.

We’ll see if they beat the ClimateProgress pundits.