Seeing the Future

Note that the election is almost certain to get closer between now and election day. Right now we’re looking at an average of 49.8 percent for Obama and 43.2 percent for McCain. That leaves 7 percent undecided. That’s a very strong position for Obama — he only needs something like 3 percent of the remaining undecideds to break his way in order to get over 50 percent and win the election. That should be easy to do. But since Obama’s already almost at 50, the remaining pool of undecided voters is more conservative than is the general population, so it shouldn’t ultimately be difficult for McCain to get most of them to go his way. Most isn’t enough for McCain to win. Not nearly enough. But it is enough to make the race tighter and perhaps generate a “McCain comeback” media narrative.