The Economy and the Midterms

We know that the state of the economy is highly correlated with an incumbent president’s re-election prospects. But how about midterm elections? Seth Masket runs the numbers and finds no association between either the level or the rate of change in unemployment and the midterm results. Looking at real disposable income, you do see a trend:

That said, looking at the charts is mostly a reminder that avoiding midterm losses for the president’s party is just very difficult.