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Three Things To Watch For As Britain’s Closest Election In Decades Kicks Off

British Prime Minister David Cameron delivers a speech at the Ambleside Sports Club in Nuneaton, England, Sunday, May 3, 2015. CREDIT: AP PHOTO/TIM IRELAND
British Prime Minister David Cameron delivers a speech at the Ambleside Sports Club in Nuneaton, England, Sunday, May 3, 2015. CREDIT: AP PHOTO/TIM IRELAND

Britain goes to the polls on May 7 in what promises to be the closest election in decades. The party political battle lines have been drawn over the short six week campaign. The major progressive party, the Labour Party, is running on a program to end austerity and harsh cuts to social services, including cuts to child benefits. The party has also vowed to protect and invest in the National Health Service, bring an end to exploitative employment practices such as zero-hour work contracts, extend apprenticeships for young people, and to raise the top tax rate on high-income earners and those with large properties — the so called Mansion Tax — to finance these programs.

The Conservative Party, which currently governs in a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, has run a largely negative campaign — backed by a Conservative leaning press that President Obama’s former advisor, David Axelrod, has claimed is more powerful than Fox News. The Conservative campaign has focused on trying to discredit the Labour Party leader, Ed Miliband, attacking Labour’s track record while in office, and claiming that the (anemic) economic recovery achieved since the crisis will be put at risk if Labour are returned to power.

Heading into the last two days of campaign, the two main parties are locked into a virtual dead heat. Yet due to profound shifts in the British electorate, neither will win an outright majority.

Beyond the battle between progressives and conservatives, however, a significant fragmentation of the UK electorate has occurred, one that will determine the unity, identity, and relationship with Europe of the United States’ closest ally. On May 7, the British electorate will not only decide who governs, they could also well decide whether the country remains “Great Britain” — a global forward looking power engaged with the world — or becomes “Little England” — an inward looking isolated former power, preoccupied with its past.

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To the north, the Scottish National Party -– while only contesting in Scotland — looks set to win an unprecedented number of seats and to replace the Liberal Democrats as the UK parliament’s third largest party. The Scottish Nationalists (SNP) have pledged not to back a Conservative government, but have also failed to rule out another a new referendum on Scotland’s membership of the United Kingdom. As a consequence, Labour leader Ed Miliband has ruled out any formal coalition with the SNP, even though many believe Labour and the SNP to be ideologically aligned and together they could well form a majority coalition government.

In the South East of England and pockets of the North, the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) continues to poll higher than expected and now rate as the third largest party in terms of national share of the vote. Due to the UK’s first-past-the-post constituency system, however, UKIP are unlikely to win very many seats. That said, they may still have a significant impact on the outcome in battleground constituencies where the Labour and Conservative vote is close. In part to prevent a bleed of Conservative Voters (also known as Tories) to UKIP, David Cameron has pledged to hold a referendum on Britain’s EU membership if he forms the next government. This is a vote that many believe would be very hard for the pro-European forces to win.

So what should you look out for as the results begin to roll in? How can we tell what the future holds for the United Kingdom?

Big Scalps

Firstly, the defeat of prominent politicians from the major parties. In 1997, when Labour won a landslide victory over the Conservatives, the defeat of likely future Tory leader Michael Portillo to a relative unknown Labour candidate became an iconic moment that embodied the scale of the defeat. This time around, important seats to watch for are Douglas Alexander and Jim Murphy (head of Labour’s campaign strategy and leader of Scottish Labour, respectively), Nick Clegg (leader of the Liberal Democrats and Deputy Prime Minister), and Nigel Farage (leader of UKIP).

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Some are predicting that Labour will be wiped out in Scotland — they are currently the largest party holding 41 of 59 seats. Should both Alexander and Murphy lose their seats, then this will be an indication that the swing away from Labour has been so large in Scotland that it could damage their chances of forming a new government. Indications are, however, that Labour is allocating significant resources to these battleground constituencies in the closing stages of the campaign, with President Obama’s former strategist David Axelrod even personally engaging on Douglas Alexander’s behalf in the local press, comparing the Labour MP to the President.

Tactical Voting

The defeat or survival of Clegg or Farage, however, will be less an indication of swings for or against a particular party, but rather the presence of tactical voting — namely the decision of voters for one party to deliberately vote for another party to ensure a particular candidate does not win. For example, in South Thanet, where UKIP leader Nigel Farage is standing, there is strong evidence to suggest that Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters are “lending” their vote to the Conservative candidate to ensure Farage is not elected.

In Sheffield Hallam, Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg’s constituency, in recent days there has been a surge of tactical voting from the Conservative towards the Liberal Democrat leader, to ensure Clegg is re-elected. In the eyes of many commentators, this is an indication that David Cameron considers the survival of Nick Clegg as crucial to his ability to maintain the coalition government.

Given the narrow margins between the projected seat totals for Labour and the Tories (both parties are projected to win between 270 and 280 seats, depending on the poll), tactical voting across the UK could have an impact on the final seat totals and the chances of either party forming a government. For example, Conservative voters in some constituencies in Scotland could back the Labour candidate in order to prevent the Scottish Nationalists, seen as the greater evil, from wining. Or Labour voters could back a Liberal Democrat candidate in a constituency in order to help defeat the Tories.

Coalition Calculus

While tactical voting and the outcomes of battleground races may seem small issues, in an election this tight they could make all the difference. In the UK parliament, a party or coalition needs to effectively win 323 of the 650 seats to have a functioning majority.

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If Labour can hold seats in Scotland and become the largest party with some 280 seats, then they are almost guaranteed to form the government — even without a formal coalition with the Scottish National Party. This is the best chance in years to fight back against the Tories’ austerity agenda, maintain the United Kingdom, and assure Britain’s role as an engaged player in Europe and around the global.

Yet even if the Tories are the largest party, all is not lost. It is far from clear that a minority Conservative government, even one with the support of the Liberal Democrats, would be able to win the confidence of the House of Commons. And, forming an alliance with UKIP and other small parties on the right is likely to be unpalatable for the pro-European Liberal Democrats.