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Turkey’s strongman might be losing his grip on the country. Here’s why that matters.

In a remarkable turn of events, President Erdogan is facing some real competition in Sunday's unpredictable elections.

An election banner showing the portrait of Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seen hanging over Eminonu on June 19, 2018 in Istanbul, Turkey. (CREDIT: Chris McGrath/Getty Images)
An election banner showing the portrait of Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seen hanging over Eminonu on June 19, 2018 in Istanbul, Turkey. (CREDIT: Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing a major challenge in the snap elections he called for. If he loses on Sunday, the shift could be seismic for the country he has run with an iron fist for nearly four years (and helped run as prime minister for an additional 11 years prior to that).

Turkey’s importance in the region can’t be underestimated.

Turkey is a key NATO ally and U.S. ally in Syria, borders Iran, and has been an ally to Qatar in its diplomatic crisis. And although Erdogan has been widely criticized by rights groups since he instituted wide-ranging crackdowns after a failed coup in 2016 (50,000 academics, activists, journalists and civil servants have been arrested on specious charges since then with another 107,000 dismissed from jobs), he has still not been isolated by the international community. Just this week, he purchased U.S.-made F-35 stealth bombers.

The elections were originally scheduled for November 2019, but fearing the loss of public support, Erdogan moved the elections up in a bid to cement the power that he already has.

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Signs of trouble were visible last year, when experts told ThinkProgress that a combination of factors in the country were posing a challenge to the president’s popularity: The war in Syria is winding down, and still the refugee deal with the European Union, which has Turkey housing millions of refugees, continues to strain the country’s struggling economy.

Erdogan has even promised citizenship to the nearly 3 million Syrian and Iraqi refugees in order to win their vote, but as it stands, only 30,000 have been given citizenship and the right to vote on Sunday.

He needs to win more than half the vote to avoid a runoff, and if he succeeds, he’ll gain the wide-ranging executive authorities cemented in a referendum vote last year that would grant the president sweeping powers.

Also on Sunday are Turkey’s parliamentary elections, which could also prove a challenge to Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) even if he does win an outright majority in the presidential poll.

The challengers

There are six presidential candidates in total, but here are the key players posing a threat to Erdogan for the presidency and the AKP (and it’s ultra-right wing ally, the Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP) in the parliamentary polls:

Muharrem Ince

(CREDIT: Emin Sansar/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
(CREDIT: Emin Sansar/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)

Muharrem Ince, of the secular Republican People’s Party (CHP), is polling well in the presidential race. A former physics teacher, he has been attracting huge crowds at rallies, which is quiet a feat, given Erdogan’s total control over the country’s media. He opposed the 2017 constitutional referendum and vows to mend relations with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, which have been damaged in the years since the start of the civil war there. He’s also served in parliament for 15 years.

Meral Aksener

(CREDIT: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)
(CREDIT: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)

Meral Aksener, of the Good Party (IYI) is the only woman running for the office of the presidency in this race. Known as “She-wolf” and “Mother Meral,” she has a long career — including serving as interior minister — and is known as a conservative and a nationalist, taking a hardline against Kurdish separatists. She broke with the MHP party and established the IYI party in October 2017.

A CHP/IYI coalition poses the strongest challenge to the AKP/MHP alliance.

Selhattin Demirtas

(CREDIT: YASIN AKGUL/AFP/Getty Images)
(CREDIT: YASIN AKGUL/AFP/Getty Images)

The Kurdish People’s Democrat Party (HDP) has vowed to throw its support behind any candidate that faces Erdogan in the event of a run-off.

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The former co-leader of the party, Selahattin Demirtaș, was arrested in 2016, with his party accused of sympathizing with the PKK, Kurdish separatists  Erdogan views as terrorist.The HDP nominated Demirtaș, who is currently behind bars facing a 142-year sentence, as its presidential candidate. Ince visited Demirtaș in prison in May, which could have been the start of a conversation about coalition building should the presidential vote move to a second round. The HDP needs to secure 10 percent of the parliamentary vote and pose a credible challenge to Erdogan’s AKP party.