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Will The Epic Drought ‘Darken Obama Reelection Prospects’?

I’m bringing back the question of the week. This one is inspired by a Christian Science Monitor story, and this stunning map of US drought conditions:

The story, “Drought threatens to darken Obama reelection prospects,” opines in its sub-hed:

With nearly two-thirds of the US enduring drought conditions, food prices are expected to jump ahead of the November election. That could add to voter anxieties about the economy.

Certainly one of the biggest impacts of warming-driven drought and extreme weather is food insecurity (see “Climate Story of the Year: Warming-Driven Drought and Extreme Weather Emerge as Key Threat to Global Food Security” and links below).

And this drought is (almost) as brutal as it gets:

The PDSI [Palmer Drought Severity Index] in the Great Plains during the Dust Bowl apparently spiked very briefly to -6, but otherwise rarely exceeded -3 for the decade (see here). Nearly half the country is now -3 or worse.

If you want to see how these drought indices stack up against the historical record since 1895, click here. For the nation as a whole, the PDSI is in the lowest 1%. Over much of the Midwest is just about the worst drought ever.

The Monitor story explains the impact of the current drought on crops:

Record-setting heat waves that have fueled fires in the Mountain West have also had a dramatic effect on the corn crop at a particularly vulnerable time. Currently, 30 percent of the corn crop in the 18 chief corn-growing states is now in poor condition, up 8 percentage points from a week earlier.

“In the hottest areas last week, which were generally dry, crop conditions deteriorated quickly,” wrote Rich Tinker, author of the Drought Monitor.

In places like Egypt where, food consumes 40% or more of family income, so a jump in food prices can obviously be devastating — and that certainly can have political impact (see The Economist: “The high cost of food is one reason that protesters took to the streets in Tunisia and Egypt”). Drought would also appear to be having an impact in Syria (see Syria: Climate Change, Drought and Social Unrest).

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Americans, however, are more impervious to food price fluctuation from extreme weather because we are the breadbasket of the world and the wholesale price of food is generally a small fraction of the price consumers pay in the market.

The story continues:

… if wilting plants result in yield below what was expected in the futures markets, prices will rise further. Already, prices have risen by about 30 percent, meaning consumers could see short-term price impacts on manufactured goods like cereals and even soft drinks this fall and rising meat prices next year.

Researchers have pegged inflation and “rate of income” as two major factors for voters in presidential elections. With gas prices again inching up and “now the drought impact on the food sector, we’re going to have an inflation issue here, and that will put a damper on consumer confidence and will have a major impact on the election,” says Michael Walden, a consumer economics expert at North Carolina State University in Raleigh.

Record-setting heat waves that have fueled fires in the Mountain West have also had a dramatic effect on the corn crop at a particularly vulnerable time. Currently, 30 percent of the corn crop in the 18 chief corn-growing states is now in poor condition, up 8 percentage points from a week earlier.

“In the hottest areas last week, which were generally dry, crop conditions deteriorated quickly,” wrote Rich Tinker, author of the Drought Monitor.

Inflation, which had been estimated at 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent for this year, likely will inch up to 3 percent to 3.5 percent, Chris Hurt, a Purdue University agricultural economist, tells The Town Talk news site.

What are the political implications?

No one is suggesting that President Obama should take direct blame for the drought. In fact, his administration has been adamant about taking on global climate change, which some suggest could be playing a role in the unseasonably, and in many places historic, heat that’s blanketed the country this year.

Yet drought-related food inflation could serve to highlight the overall weakness of the economy — a potential problem for Mr. Obama.

Of course, the current drought could break, as it seems to have begun to do in Georgia, where copious rain has fallen in the past few days. Moreover, the extent and timing of rising food prices remain big X factors as the two presidential campaigns steer toward November.

“Whether [the drought] affects the election will depend on the timing,” says James Campbell, a political scientist who specializes in presidential politics at the University at Buffalo in New York. “The drought will most likely affect food prices later in the year, and the question is, will that be too late to make a difference?”

More than three-quarters of voters will likely have made up their minds before the last days of the election, when food prices might be rising. But Professor Campbell adds: “Those late deciders, they’re going to decide the election.”

Election analysis has tended to show that people are more influenced by economic conditions — both the absolute level and the direction of change — in the spring and summer before election than they are in the fall. So I’m inclined to think the impact would be minimal, though it certainly would be ironic if warming-driven drought helped elect a candidate who has etch-a-sketched himself into climate denial and climate inaction.

What do you think?

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